Revenue and Economic Forecast

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Copies of the reports listed below may be obtained by contacting the office at 517.373.8080 or contacting Kathryn Bateson.

Questions on the following documents should be directed to Benjamin Gielczyk, Associate Director and Senior Economist.

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Key Documents and Links


ball Consensus Revenue Estimating Conference

ball State Tax Revenue Overview

ball Budget Poster - FY 2024

ball Revenue Sharing

ball Revenue and Economic Forecast Archives

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2024

2023

2022

2021

  • HFA Monthly Revenue Update – October 2021 November 16, 2021. Prepared by Mary Ann Cleary, Director and Jim Stansell, Senior Economist.
  • Appropriations: Summary and Analysis, FY 2021-22 November 4, 2021. This publication provides a summary and analysis of the FY 2021-22 year to date state budget.
  • HFA Monthly Revenue Update – September 2021 October 14, 2021. Prepared by Mary Ann Cleary, Director and Jim Stansell, Senior Economist.
  • HFA Monthly Revenue Update – August 2021 September 14, 2021. Prepared by Mary Ann Cleary, Director and Jim Stansell, Senior Economist.
  • HFA Monthly Revenue Update – July 2021 August 10, 2021. Prepared by Mary Ann Cleary, Director and Jim Stansell, Senior Economist.
  • Revenue State Source and Distribution August 10, 2021. Prepared by Jim Stansell, Senior Economist. This report provides information on the source and distribution of revenue for the State of Michigan, and includes final FY 2019-20 revenue, and estimated FY 2020-21 and FY 2021-22 amounts. Estimates in this report are based on revenue amounts agreed to at the May 2021 Consensus Revenue Estimating Conference. This publication also includes final FY 2019-20 collections by type of tax and provides information for each tax with regard to the tax base, rate, and disposition as well as state revenue dedication information including tax type, dedicated amount, and recipient of dedicated funds.
  • HFA Monthly Revenue Update – June 2021 July 14, 2021. Prepared by Mary Ann Cleary, Director and Jim Stansell, Senior Economist.
  • HFA Monthly Revenue Update – May 2021 June 11, 2021. Prepared by Mary Ann Cleary, Director and Jim Stansell, Senior Economist.
  • Economic Outlook and Revenue Estimates for Michigan FY 2020-21 Through FY 2022-23  May 20, 2021. Prepared by Jim Stansell, Senior Economist and Benjamin Gielczyk, Associate Director. This report includes a national and state economic forecast for calendar year (CY) 2020 through CY 2023. It also presents final General Fund/General Purpose (GF/GP) and School Aid Fund (SAF) revenue for fiscal year (FY) 2019-20, and revised revenue estimates for FY 2020-21 through FY 2022-23. Estimates reported herein will be presented to the Consensus Revenue Estimating Conference on May 21, 2021, and will be used to facilitate the consensus estimating process.
  • HFA Monthly Revenue Update – March 2021 April 12, 2021. Prepared by Mary Ann Cleary, Director and Jim Stansell, Senior Economist.
  • HFA Monthly Revenue Update – January 2021  February 10. Prepared by Mary Ann Cleary, Director and Jim Stansell, Senior Economist.
  • Consensus Revenue Agreement, Final Summary January 15, 2021. This memo provides a summation of the agreements reached at the January 2021 conference. These consensus estimates will be reviewed or updated at the May 2021 conference.
  • Consensus Revenue Agreement, Executive Summary January 15, 2021. Economic and Revenue Forecasts for Fiscal Years 2021, 2022 and 2023.
  • Economic Outlook and Revenue Estimates for Michigan FY 2020-21 Through FY 2022-23  January 14, 2021. Prepared by Jim Stansell, Senior Economist and Benjamin Gielczyk, Associate Director. This report includes a national and state economic forecast for calendar year (CY) 2020 through CY 2023. It also presents preliminary General Fund/General Purpose (GF/GP) and School Aid Fund (SAF) revenue for fiscal year (FY) 2019-20, revised revenue estimates for FY 2020-21 and FY 2021-22, and initial estimates for FY 2022-23. Estimates reported herein will be presented to the Consensus Revenue Estimating Conference on January 15, 2021 and will be used to facilitate the consensus estimating process.

2020

  • HFA Monthly Revenue Update – November 2020  December 9. Prepared by Mary Ann Cleary, Director and Jim Stansell, Senior Economist.
  • Appropriations: Summary and Analysis, FY 2020-21 November 10, 2020. This publication provides a summary and analysis of the FY 2020-21 year to date state budget.
  • HFA Monthly Revenue Update – October 2020  November 10. Prepared by Mary Ann Cleary, Director and Jim Stansell, Senior Economist.
  • HFA Monthly Revenue Update – September 2020  October 13, 2020. Prepared by Mary Ann Cleary, Director and Jim Stansell, Senior Economist.
  • Revenue State Source and Distribution September 30, 2020. Prepared by Jim Stansell, Senior Economist. This report provides information on the source and distribution of revenue for the State of Michigan, and includes final FY 2018-19 revenue, and estimated FY 2019-20 and FY 2020-21 amounts. Estimates in this report are based on revenue amounts agreed to at the August 2020 Consensus Revenue Estimating Conference. This publication also includes final FY 2018-19 collections by type of tax and provides information for each tax with regard to the tax base, rate, and disposition. It also includes state revenue dedication information including tax type, dedicated amount, and recipient of dedicated funds.
  • HFA Monthly Revenue Update – August 2020  September 11, 2020. Prepared by Mary Ann Cleary, Director and Jim Stansell, Senior Economist.
  • HFA Monthly Revenue Update – July 2020  August 17, 2020. Prepared by Mary Ann Cleary, Director and Jim Stansell, Senior Economist.
  • HFA Monthly Revenue Update – June 2020  July 16, 2020. Prepared by Mary Ann Cleary, Director and Jim Stansell, Senior Economist.
  • HFA Monthly Revenue Update – May 2020 [381K] June 9, 2020. Prepared by Mary Ann Cleary, Director and Jim Stansell, Senior Economist.
  • Economic Outlook and Revenue Estimates for Michigan FY 2019-20 Through FY 2021-22 [694K], May 13, 2020. Prepared by Jim Stansell, Senior Economist and Benjamin Gielczyk, Associate Director. This report includes a national and state economic forecast for calendar year (CY) 2019 through CY 2022. It also presents final General Fund/General Purpose (GF/GP) and School Aid Fund (SAF) revenue for fiscal year (FY) 2018-19, and revised revenue estimates for FY 2019-20 through FY 2021-22. Estimates reported herein will be presented to the Consensus Revenue Estimating Conference on May 15, 2020, and will be used to facilitate the consensus estimating process.
  • HFA Monthly Revenue Update – March 2020 [381K] April 14, 2020. Prepared by Mary Ann Cleary, Director and Jim Stansell, Senior Economist.
  • Revenue State Source and Distribution [563K] February 20, 2020. Prepared by Jim Stansell, Senior Economist. This report provides information on the source and distribution of revenue for the State of Michigan, and includes preliminary FY 2018-19 revenue, and estimated FY 2019-20 and FY 2020-21 amounts. Estimates in this report are based on revenue amounts agreed to at the January 2020 Consensus Revenue Estimating Conference (CREC). This publication also includes final FY 2017-18 collections by type of tax and provides information for each tax with regard to the tax base, rate, and disposition. It also includes state revenue dedication information including tax type, dedicated amount, and recipient of dedicated funds.
  • HFA Monthly Revenue Update - January 2020 [264K] February 19, 2020. Prepared by Mary Ann Cleary, Director and Jim Stansell, Senior Economist.
  • Appropriations: Summary and Analysis, FY 2019-20 [2.90K], January 14, 2020. This publication provides a summary and analysis of the FY 2019-20 year to date state budget.
  • Consensus Revenue Agreement, Executive Summary [92K], January 10, 2020. Economic and Revenue Forecasts for Fiscal Years 2020, 2021 and 2022.
  • Economic Outlook and Revenue Estimates for Michigan FY 2019-20 Through FY 2021-22 [458K], January 8, 2020. Prepared by Jim Stansell, Senior Economist and Benjamin Gielczyk, Associate Director. This report includes a national and state economic forecast for calendar year (CY) 2019 through CY 2022. It also presents preliminary General Fund/General Purpose (GF/GP) and School Aid Fund (SAF) revenue for fiscal year (FY) 2018-19, revised revenue estimates for FY 2019-20 and FY 2020-21, and initial estimates for FY 2021-22. Estimates reported herein will be presented to the Consensus Revenue Estimating Conference on January 10, 2020, and will be used to facilitate the consensus estimating process.

2019

  • HFA Monthly Revenue Update - November 2019 [262K] December 12, 2019. Prepared by Mary Ann Cleary, Director and Jim Stansell, Senior Economist.
  • HFA Monthly Revenue Update - October 2019 [264K] November 12, 2019. Prepared by Mary Ann Cleary, Director and Jim Stansell, Senior Economist.
  • HFA Monthly Revenue Update - September 2019 [263K] October 11, 2019. Prepared by Mary Ann Cleary, Director and Jim Stansell, Senior Economist.
  • HFA Monthly Revenue Update - August 2019 [262K] September 13, 2019. Prepared by Mary Ann Cleary, Director and Jim Stansell, Senior Economist.
  • Revenue State Source and Distribution [574K] August 22, 2019. Prepared by Jim Stansell, Senior Economist. This report provides information on the source and distribution of revenue for the State of Michigan, and includes final FY 2017-18 revenue, and estimated FY 2018-19 and FY 2019-20 amounts. Estimates in this report are based on revenue amounts agreed to at the May 2019 Consensus Revenue Estimating Conference (CREC).
  • HFA Monthly Revenue Update - July 2019 [261K] August 13, 2019. Prepared by Mary Ann Cleary, Director and Jim Stansell, Senior Economist.
  • HFA Monthly Revenue Update - June 2019 [261K] July 11, 2019. Prepared by Mary Ann Cleary, Director and Jim Stansell, Senior Economist.
  • HFA Monthly Revenue Update - May 2019 [261K] June 11, 2019. Prepared by Mary Ann Cleary, Director and Jim Stansell, Senior Economist.
  • Consensus Revenue Agreement, Final Summary [355K], May 17, 2019. This memo provides a summation of the agreements reached at the May 2019 conference. These consensus estimates will be reviewed or updated at the January 2020 conference.
  • Consensus Revenue Agreement, Executive Summary [104K], May 17, 2019. Economic and Revenue Forecasts for Fiscal Years 2019, 2020 and 2021.
  • Economic Outlook and Revenue Estimates for Michigan FY 2018-19 Through FY 2020-21 [564K], May 15, 2019. Prepared by Jim Stansell, Senior Economist. This report includes a national and state economic forecast for calendar year (CY) 2018 through CY 2021. It also presents final General Fund/General Purpose (GF/GP) and School Aid Fund (SAF) revenue for fiscal year (FY) 2017-18, and revised revenue estimates for FY 2018-19 through FY 2020-21. Estimates reported herein will be presented to the Consensus Revenue Estimating Conference on May 17, 2019, and will be used to facilitate the consensus estimating process.
  • HFA Monthly Revenue Update - March 2019 [262K] April 12, 2019. Prepared by Mary Ann Cleary, Director and Jim Stansell, Senior Economist.
  • Revenue State Source and Distribution [477K] April 2, 2019. Prepared by Jim Stansell, Senior Economist. This report provides information on the source and distribution of revenue for the State of Michigan, and includes final FY 2017-18 revenue, and estimated FY 2018-19 and FY 2019-20 amounts. Estimates in this report are based on revenue amounts agreed to at the January 2019 Consensus Revenue Estimating Conference (CREC).
  • HFA Monthly Revenue Update - February 2019 [261K] March 13, 2019. Prepared by Mary Ann Cleary, Director and Jim Stansell, Senior Economist.
  • HFA Monthly Revenue Update - January 2019 [81K] February 15, 2019. Prepared by Mary Ann Cleary, Director and Jim Stansell, Senior Economist.
  • Consensus Revenue Agreement, Final Summary [346K], January 11, 2019. This memo provides a summation of the agreements reached at the January 2019 conference. These consensus estimates will be reviewed or updated at the May 2019 conference.
  • Consensus Revenue Agreement, Executive Summary [90K], January 11, 2019. Economic and Revenue Forecasts for Fiscal Years 2019, 2020 and 2021.
  • Economic Outlook and Revenue Estimates for Michigan FY 2018-19 Through FY 2020-21 [278K], January 9, 2019. Prepared by Jim Stansell, Senior Economist. This report includes a national and state economic forecast for calendar year (CY) 2018 through CY 2021. It also presents preliminary General Fund/General Purpose (GF/GP) and School Aid Fund (SAF) revenue for fiscal year (FY) 2017-18, revised revenue estimates for FY 2018-19 and FY 2019-20, and initial estimates for FY 2020-21. Estimates reported herein will be presented to the Consensus Revenue Estimating Conference on January 11, 2019, and will be used to facilitate the consensus estimating process.

2018

2017

  • HFA Monthly Revenue Update - October 2017 [110K] November 15, 2017. Prepared by Mary Ann Cleary, Director and Jim Stansell, Senior Economist.
  • HFA Monthly Revenue Update - September 2017 [110K] October 12, 2017. Prepared by Mary Ann Cleary, Director and Jim Stansell, Senior Economist.
  • Revenue State Source and Distribution [607K] September 28, 2017. Prepared by Jim Stansell, Senior Economist. This report provides information on the source and distribution of revenue for the State of Michigan, and includes final FY 2015-16 and estimated FY 2016-17 and FY 2017-18 revenue. Estimates in this report are based on revenue amounts agreed to at the May 2017 Consensus Revenue Estimating Conference.
  • HFA Monthly Revenue Update - August 2017 [142K] September 19, 2017. Prepared by Mary Ann Cleary, Director and Jim Stansell, Senior Economist.
  • Appropriations: Summary and Analysis, FY 2017-18 [2.23K], August 2017. This FY 2017-18 Appropriations Summary and Analysis summarizes the enacted FY 2017-18 state budget.
  • HFA Monthly Revenue Update - July 2017 [137K] August 11, 2017. Prepared by Mary Ann Cleary, Director and Jim Stansell, Senior Economist.
  • HFA Monthly Revenue Update - June 2017 [137K] July 13, 2017. Prepared by Mary Ann Cleary, Director and Jim Stansell, Senior Economist.
  • HFA Monthly Revenue Update - May 2017 [142K] June 9, 2017. Prepared by Mary Ann Cleary, Director and Jim Stansell, Senior Economist.
  • Consensus Revenue Agreement, Final Summary [146K], May 18, 2017. This memo provides a summation of the agreements reached at the May 2017 conference. These consensus estimates will be reviewed or updated at the January 2018 conference.
  • Consensus Revenue Agreement, Executive Summary [56K], May 17, 2017. Economic and Revenue Forecasts for Fiscal Years 2017, 2018 and 2019.
  • Economic Outlook and Revenue Estimates for Michigan FY 2016-17 Through FY 2018-19 [180K], May 15, 2017. Prepared by Jim Stansell, Senior Economist. This report includes a national and state economic forecast for calendar year (CY) 2016 through CY 2019. It also presents final General Fund/General Purpose (GF/GP) and School Aid Fund (SAF) revenue for fiscal year (FY) 2015-16, revised estimates for FY 2016-17 and FY 2018-19. Estimates reported herein will be presented to the Consensus Revenue Estimating Conference on May 17, 2017, and will be used to facilitate the consensus estimating process.
  • HFA Monthly Revenue Update - March 2017 [140K] April 18, 2017. Prepared by Mary Ann Cleary, Director and Jim Stansell, Senior Economist.
  • Revenue State Source and Distribution [281K] March 2017. Prepared by Jim Stansell, Senior Economist. This report provides information on the source and distribution of revenue for the State of Michigan, and includes final FY 2015-16 and estimated FY 2016-17 and FY 2017-18 revenue. Estimates in this report are based on revenue amounts agreed to at the January 2017 Consensus Revenue Estimating Conference.
  • HFA Monthly Revenue Update - February 2017 [117K] March 15, 2017. Prepared by Mary Ann Cleary, Director and Jim Stansell, Senior Economist.
  • Consensus Revenue Agreement, Final Summary [143K], January 13, 2017. This memo provides a summation of the agreements reached at the January 2017 conference. These consensus estimates will be reviewed or updated at the May 2017 conference.
  • Consensus Revenue Agreement, Executive Summary [89K], January 12, 2017. Economic and Revenue Forecasts for Fiscal Years 2017, 2018 and 2019.
  • Economic Outlook and Revenue Estimates for Michigan FY 2016-17 Through FY 2018-19 [166K], January 10, 2017. Prepared by Jim Stansell, Senior Economist. This report includes a national and state economic forecast for calendar year (CY) 2016 through CY 2019. It also presents preliminary final General Fund/General Purpose (GF/GP) and School Aid Fund (SAF) revenue for fiscal year (FY) 2015-16, revised estimates for FY 2016-17 and FY 2017-18, and initial estimates for FY 2018-19. Estimates reported herein will be presented to the Consensus Revenue Estimating Conference on January 12, 2017, and will be used to facilitate the consensus estimating process.

2016

  • HFA Monthly Revenue Update - October 2016 [117K] November 8, 2016. Prepared by Mary Ann Cleary, Director and Jim Stansell, Senior Economist.
  • HFA Monthly Revenue Update - September 2016 [113K] October 12, 2016. Prepared by Mary Ann Cleary, Director and Jim Stansell, Senior Economist.
  • HFA Monthly Revenue Update -August 2016 [114K] September 9, 2016. Prepared by Mary Ann Cleary, Director and Jim Stansell, Senior Economist.
  • HFA Monthly Revenue Update - July 2016 [114K] August 9, 2016. Prepared by Mary Ann Cleary, Director and Jim Stansell, Senior Economist.
  • Revenue State Source and Distribution [281K] July 2016. Prepared by Jim Stansell, Senior Economist. This report provides information on the source and distribution of revenue for the State of Michigan, and includes final FY 2014-15 and estimated FY 2015-16 and FY 2016-17 revenue. Estimates in this report are based on revenue amounts agreed to at the May 2016 Consensus Revenue Estimating Conference and revenue detail in the FY 2016-17 enacted budget.
  • Appropriations: Summary and Analysis, FY 2016-17 [1.04K], July 2016. This FY 2016-17 Appropriations Summary and Analysis summarizes the enacted FY 2016-17 state budget.
  • HFA Monthly Revenue Update [114K] July 19, 2016. Prepared by Mary Ann Cleary, Director and Jim Stansell, Senior Economist.
  • Consensus Revenue Agreement, Final Summary [145K], May 17, 2016. This memo provides a summation of the agreements reached at the May 2016 conference. These consensus estimates will be reviewed or updated at the January 2017 conference.
  • Consensus Revenue Agreement, Executive Summary [70K], May 17, 2016 . Economic and Revenue Forecasts for Fiscal Years 2016, 2017 and 2018.
  • Economic Outlook and Revenue Estimates for Michigan FY 2015-16 Through FY 2017-18 [176K], May 13, 2016. Prepared by Jim Stansell, Senior Economist. This report includes a national and state economic forecast for calendar year (CY) 2015 through CY 2018. It also presents preliminary final General Fund/General Purpose (GF/GP) and School Aid Fund (SAF) revenue for fiscal year (FY) 2014-15, and revised estimates for FY 2015-16 through FY 2017-18. Estimates reported herein will be presented to the Consensus Revenue Estimating Conference on May 17, 2016, and will be used to facilitate the consensus estimating process.
  • Economic and Revenue Update [160K] March 17, 2016. Prepared by Mary Ann Cleary, Director and Jim Stansell, Senior Economist.
  • Consensus Revenue Agreement, Final Summary [143K], January 15, 2016. This memo provides a summation of the agreements reached at the January 14, 2016 conference. The consensus estimates will be revised or updated at the May 2016 conference.
  • Economic Outlook and Revenue Estimates for Michigan FY 2015-16 Through FY 2017-18 [164K], January 12, 2016. Prepared by Jim Stansell, Senior Economist. This report includes a national and state economic forecast for calendar year (CY) 2015 through CY 2018. It also presents preliminary final General Fund/General Purpose (GF/GP) and School Aid Fund (SAF) revenue for fiscal year (FY) 2014-15, and revised estimates for FY 2015-16 through FY 2016-17, and initial estimates for FY 2017-18. Estimates reported herein will be presented to the Consensus Revenue Estimating Conference on January 14, 2016, and will be used to facilitate the consensus estimating process.

2015

  • Economic and Revenue Report [173K] September 11, 2015. Prepared by Mary Ann Cleary, Director and Jim Stansell, Senior Economist.
  • Revenue State Source and Distribution [556K] July 2015. Prepared by Jim Stansell, Senior Economist. This report provides information on the source and distribution of revenue for the State of Michigan, and includes final FY 2013-14 and estimated FY 2014-15 and FY 2015-16 revenue. Estimates in this report are based on revenue amounts agreed to at the May 2015 Consensus Revenue Estimating Conference and revenue detail in the FY 2015-16 enacted budget.
  • Appropriations: Summary and Analysis, FY 2015-16 [1.10K], July 2015.
  • Consensus Revenue Agreement, Executive Summary [47K], May 15, 2015 . Economic and Revenue Forecasts for Fiscal Years 2015, 2016 and 2017.
  • Economic Outlook and Revenue Estimates for Michigan FY 2014-15 Through FY 2016-17 [174K], May 13, 2015. Prepared by Jim Stansell, Senior Economist. This report includes a national and state economic forecast for calendar year (CY) 2014 through CY 2017. It also presents final General Fund/General Purpose (GF/GP) and School Aid Fund (SAF) revenue for fiscal year FY 2013-14 and revised estimates for FY 2014-15 through FY 2016-17. Estimates reported herein will be presented to the Consensus Revenue Estimating Conference on May 15, 2015, and will be used to facilitate the consensus estimating process.
  • Consensus Revenue Agreement, Final Summary [154K], January 20, 2015. This memo provides a summation of the agreements reached at the January 16, 2015 conference. The consensus estimates will be revised or updated at the May 2015 conference.
  • Consensus Revenue Agreement, Executive Summary [47K], January 16, 2015. Economic and Revenue Forecasts for fiscal years 2015, 2016 and 2017.
  • Economic Outlook and Revenue Estimates for Michigan FY 2014-15 Through FY 2016-17 [270K], January 14, 2015. Prepared by Jim Stansell, Senior Economist. This report includes a national and State economic forecast for calendar year (CY) 2014 through CY 2017. It also presents final General Fund/General Purpose (GF/GP) and School Aid Fund (SAF) revenue for fiscal year FY 2013-14 and revised estimates for FY 2014-15 through FY 2015-16, and initial estimates for FY 2016-17. Estimates reported herein will be presented to the Consensus Revenue Estimating Conference on January 16, 2015, and will be used to facilitate the consensus estimating process.

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ball Revenue Archives

External Sites

Michigan House of Representatives

Michigan Legislature

Michigan Senate

Michigan Senate Fiscal Agency

State of Michigan

Michigan Department of Treasury

State of Michigan Budget Office

State of Michigan Departments