Consensus Revenue Estimating Conference

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Copies of the reports listed below may be obtained by contacting the office at 517.373.8080 or contacting Kathryn Bateson.

Questions on the following documents should be directed to Benjamin Gielczyk, Associate Director and Senior Economist.

Special Reports

May 2024

Consensus Revenue Agreement, Final Summary May 17, 2024. This memo provides a summation of the agreements reached at the May 2024 conference. These consensus estimates will be reviewed or updated at the January 2025 conference.
Consensus Revenue Agreement, Executive Summary May 17, 2024. Economic and Revenue Forecasts for Fiscal Years 2024, 2025 and 2026.
Consensus Revenue Estimating Conference Agenda May 17, 2024.
RSQE - The U.S. and Michigan Outlook for 2024-2026 May 17, 2024. Presentation by Gabriel Ehrlich and Daniil Manaenkov, Research Seminar in Quantitative Economics.
Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago – The Changing EV Landscape...and its Implications for Michigan May 17, 2024. Presentation by Kristin Dziczek.
Estimates of K-12 Pupil Membership and Foundation Allowance May 17, 2024. Prepared by House Fiscal Agency, Senate Fiscal Agency, and State Budget Office.
Estimates of Child Development and Care Caseloads and Costs May 17, 2024. Prepared by House Fiscal Agency, Senate Fiscal Agency, and State Budget Office.
Estimates of Medicaid and Human Services Caseloads and Costs May 17, 2024. Prepared by House Fiscal Agency, Senate Fiscal Agency, and State Budget Office.
House, Senate and Administration Economic Outlooks and Revenue Estimates May 17, 2024. Prepared by House Fiscal Agency, Senate Fiscal Agency, and Department of Treasury.
Economic Outlook and Revenue Estimates for Michigan FY 2023-24 Through FY 2025-26 May 16, 2024. Prepared by Benjamin Gielczyk, Associate Director. This report includes a national and state economic forecast for calendar year (CY) 2023 through CY 2026. It also presents final General Fund/General Purpose (GF/GP) and School Aid Fund (SAF) revenue for fiscal year (FY) 2022-23 and revised revenue estimates for FY 2023-24 through FY 2025-26. Estimates reported herein will be presented to the Consensus Revenue Estimating Conference on May 17, 2024 and will be used to facilitate the consensus estimating process.
Michigan’s Economic Outlook and Budget Review FY 2023-24 – FY 2025-26 May 16, 2024. Prepared by the Senate Fiscal Agency.
Economic and Revenue Outlook FY 2023-24 - FY 2025-26 May 17, 2024. Prepared by the Department of Treasury.

January 2024

Consensus Revenue Agreement, Final Summary January 12, 2024. This memo provides a summation of the agreements reached at the January 2024 conference. These consensus estimates will be reviewed or updated at the May 2024 conference.
Consensus Revenue Agreement, Executive Summary January 12, 2024. Economic and Revenue Forecasts for Fiscal Years 2024, 2025 and 2026.
Consensus Revenue Estimating Conference Agenda January 12, 2024.
RSQE – The U.S. and Michigan Outlook for 2024-2026 January 12, 2024. Presentation by Gabriel Ehrlich and Daniil Manaenkov, Research Seminar in Quantitative Economics.
Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago – The Economic Outlook: The Perspective from the Midwest January 12, 2024. Presentation by Leslie McGranahan.
Estimates of K-12 Pupil Membership and Foundation Allowance January 12, 2024. Prepared by House Fiscal Agency, Senate Fiscal Agency, and State Budget Office.
House, Senate and Administration Economic Outlooks and Revenue Estimates January 12, 2024. Prepared by House Fiscal Agency, Senate Fiscal Agency, and Department of Treasury.
Economic Outlook and Revenue Estimates for Michigan FY 2023-24 Through FY 2025-26 January 10, 2024. Prepared by Jim Stansell, Senior Economist and Benjamin Gielczyk, Associate Director. This report includes a national and state economic forecast for calendar year (CY) 2023 through CY 2026. It also presents preliminary General Fund/General Purpose (GF/GP) and School Aid Fund (SAF) revenue for fiscal year (FY) 2022-23, revised revenue estimates for FY 2023-24 and FY 2024-25, and initial estimates for FY 2025-26. Estimates reported herein will be presented to the Consensus Revenue Estimating Conference on January 12, 2024 and will be used to facilitate the consensus estimating process.
Michigan’s Economic Outlook and Budget Review FY 2022-23 – FY 2025-26 January 5, 2024. Prepared by the Senate Fiscal Agency.
Economic and Revenue Outlook FY 2023-24 – FY 2025-26 January 12, 2024. Prepared by the Department of Treasury.

May 2023

Consensus Revenue Agreement, Final Summary May 19, 2023. This memo provides a summation of the agreements reached at the May 2023 conference. These consensus estimates will be reviewed or updated at the January 2024 conference.
Consensus Revenue Agreement, Executive Summary May 19, 2023. Economic and Revenue Forecasts for Fiscal Years 2023, 2024 and 2025.
Consensus Revenue Estimating Conference Agenda May 19, 2023.
RSQE - The U.S. and Michigan Outlook for 2023-2025 May 19, 2023. Presentation by Gabriel Ehrlich and Daniil Manaenkov, Research Seminar in Quantitative Economics.
Michigan Demographic Trends May 19, 2023. Prepared by Jaclyn Butler, State Demographer, Bureau of Labor Market Information and Strategic Initiatives, Department of Technology, Management and Budget. This document gives information on the demographic trends in Michigan.
Estimates of K-12 Pupil Membership and Foundation Allowance May 19, 2023. Prepared by House Fiscal Agency, Senate Fiscal Agency, and State Budget Office.
Estimates for Child Development and Care May 19, 2023. Prepared by House Fiscal Agency, Senate Fiscal Agency, and State Budget Office.
Estimates of Medicaid and Health and Human Services Caseloads and Costs May 19, 2023. Prepared by House Fiscal Agency, Senate Fiscal Agency, and State Budget Office.
House, Senate and Administration Economic Outlooks and Revenue Estimates May 19, 2023. Prepared by House Fiscal Agency, Senate Fiscal Agency, and Department of Treasury.
Economic Outlook and Revenue Estimates for Michigan FY 2022-23 Through FY 2024-25 May 17, 2023. Prepared by Benjamin Gielczyk, Associate Director and Jim Stansell, Senior Economist and Associate Director. This report includes a national and state economic forecast for calendar year (CY) 2022 through CY 2025. It also presents final General Fund/General Purpose (GF/GP) and School Aid Fund (SAF) revenue for fiscal year (FY) 2021-22 and revised revenue estimates for FY 2022-23 through FY 2024-25. Estimates reported herein will be presented to the Consensus Revenue Estimating Conference on May 19, 2023 and will be used to facilitate the consensus estimating process.
Michigan’s Economic Outlook and Budget Review FY 2022-23 – FY 2024-25 May 16, 2023. Prepared by the Senate Fiscal Agency.
Economic and Revenue Outlook FY 2022-23 - FY 2024-25 May 19, 2023. Prepared by the Department of Treasury.

January 2023

Consensus Revenue Agreement, Final Summary January 13, 2023. This memo provides a summation of the agreements reached at the January 2023 conference. These consensus estimates will be reviewed or updated at the May 2023 conference.
Consensus Revenue Agreement, Executive Summary January 13, 2023. Economic and Revenue Forecasts for Fiscal Years 2023, 2024 and 2025.
Consensus Revenue Estimating Conference Agenda January 13, 2023.
RSQE - The U.S. and Michigan Outlook for 2023-2025 January 13, 2023. Presentation by Gabriel Ehrlich and Daniil Manaenkov, Research Seminar in Quantitative Economics.
Federal Reserve Bank of New York - The Global Supply Chain Pressure Index January 13, 2023. Presentation by Gianluca Benigno.
House, Senate and Administration Economic Outlooks and Revenue Estimates January 13, 2023. Prepared by House Fiscal Agency, Senate Fiscal Agency, and Department of Treasury.
Estimates of K-12 Pupil Membership and Foundation Allowance January 13, 2023. Prepared by House Fiscal Agency, Senate Fiscal Agency, and State Budget Office.
Economic Outlook and Revenue Estimates for Michigan FY 2022-23 Through FY 2024-25 January 12, 2023. Prepared by Jim Stansell, Senior Economist and Benjamin Gielczyk, Associate Director. This report includes a national and state economic forecast for calendar year (CY) 2022 through CY 2025. It also presents preliminary General Fund/General Purpose (GF/GP) and School Aid Fund (SAF) revenue for fiscal year (FY) 2021-22, revised revenue estimates for FY 2022-23 and FY 2023-24, and initial estimates for FY 2024-25. Estimates reported herein will be presented to the Consensus Revenue Estimating Conference on January 13, 2023 and will be used to facilitate the consensus estimating process.
Michigan’s Economic Outlook and Budget Review FY 2022-23 – FY 2024-25 January 11, 2023. Prepared by the Senate Fiscal Agency.
Economic and Revenue Outlook FY 2022-23 - FY 2024-25 January 13, 2023. Prepared by the Department of Treasury.

December 2022

Fiscal Snapshot: Consensus Revenue Estimating Conference December 2022.

May 2022

Consensus Revenue Agreement, Final Summary May 20, 2022. This memo provides a summation of the agreements reached at the May 2022 conference. These consensus estimates will be reviewed or updated at the January 2023 conference.
Consensus Revenue Agreement, Executive Summary May 20, 2022. Economic and Revenue Forecasts for Fiscal Years 2022, 2023 and 2024.
Consensus Revenue Estimating Conference Agenda May 20, 2022.
RSQE - The U.S. and Michigan Outlook for 2022-2024 May 20, 2022. Presentation by Gabriel Ehrlich and Daniil Manaenkov, Research Seminar in Quantitative Economics.
Moody's - Global Outlook and Risks May 20, 2022. Presentation by Eric Gaus, Senior Economist, Moody's Analytics.
Estimates of K-12 Pupil Membership and Foundation Allowance May 20, 2022. Prepared by House Fiscal Agency, Senate Fiscal Agency, and State Budget Office.
Estimates for Child Development and Care May 20, 2022. Prepared by House Fiscal Agency, Senate Fiscal Agency, and State Budget Office.
Estimates of Medicaid and Health and Human Services Caseloads and Costs May 21, 2021. Prepared by House Fiscal Agency, Senate Fiscal Agency, and State Budget Office.
House, Senate and Administration Economic Outlooks and Revenue Estimates May 20, 2022. Prepared by House Fiscal Agency, Senate Fiscal Agency, and Department of Treasury.
Economic Outlook and Revenue Estimates for Michigan FY 2021-22 Through FY 2023-24 May 18, 2022. Prepared by Jim Stansell, Senior Economist and Benjamin Gielczyk, Associate Director. This report includes a national and state economic forecast for calendar year (CY) 2021 through CY 2024. It also presents final General Fund/General Purpose (GF/GP) and School Aid Fund (SAF) revenue for fiscal year (FY) 2020-21 and revised revenue estimates for FY 2021-22 through FY 2023-24. Estimates reported herein will be presented to the Consensus Revenue Estimating Conference on May 20, 2022 and will be used to facilitate the consensus estimating process.
Michigan’s Economic Outlook and Budget Review FY 2021-22 – FY 2023-24 May 17, 2022. Prepared by the Senate Fiscal Agency.
Economic and Revenue Outlook FY 2021-22 - FY 2023-24 May 20, 2022. Prepared by the Department of Treasury.

January 2022

Consensus Revenue Agreement, Final Summary January 14, 2022. This memo provides a summation of the agreements reached at the January 2022 conference. These consensus estimates will be reviewed or updated at the May 2022 conference.
Consensus Revenue Agreement, Executive Summary January 14, 2022. Economic and Revenue Forecasts for Fiscal Years 2022, 2023 and 2024.
Consensus Revenue Estimating Conference Agenda January 14, 2022. Broadcast details and agenda.
RSQE - The U.S. and Michigan Outlook for 2022-2024 January 14, 2022. Presentation by Gabriel Ehrlich and Daniil Manaenkov, Research Seminar in Quantitative Economics.
U.S. and Michigan Automotive Update January 14, 2022, Prepared by Kristin Dziczek, Vice President of Research, Center for Automotive Research.
House, Senate and Administration Economic Outlooks and Revenue Estimates January 14, 2022. Prepared by House Fiscal Agency, Senate Fiscal Agency, and Department of Treasury.
Estimates of K-12 Pupil Membership and Foundation Allowance January 14, 2022. Prepared by House Fiscal Agency, Senate Fiscal Agency, and State Budget Office.
Economic Outlook and Revenue Estimates for Michigan FY 2021-22 Through FY 2023-24 January 12, 2022. Prepared by Jim Stansell, Senior Economist and Benjamin Gielczyk, Associate Director. This report includes a national and state economic forecast for calendar year (CY) 2021 through CY 2024. It also presents preliminary General Fund/General Purpose (GF/GP) and School Aid Fund (SAF) revenue for fiscal year (FY) 2020-21, revised revenue estimates for FY 2021-22 and FY 2022-23, and initial estimates for FY 2023-24. Estimates reported herein will be presented to the Consensus Revenue Estimating Conference on January 14, 2022 and will be used to facilitate the consensus estimating process.
Michigan’s Economic Outlook and Budget Review FY 2021-22 – FY 2023-24 January 7, 2022. Prepared by the Senate Fiscal Agency.
Economic and Revenue Outlook FY 2021-22 - FY 2023-24 January 14, 2022. Prepared by the Department of Treasury.

May 2021

Consensus Revenue Agreement, Final Summary May 21, 2021. This memo provides a summation of the agreements reached at the May 2021 conference. These consensus estimates will be reviewed or updated at the January 2022 conference.
Consensus Revenue Agreement, Executive Summary May 21, 2021. Economic and Revenue Forecasts for Fiscal Years 2021, 2022 and 2023.
Consensus Revenue Estimating Conference Agenda May 21, 2021. Broadcast details and agenda.
RSQE - The U.S. and Michigan Outlook for 2021-2023 May 21, 2021. Presentation by Gabriel Ehrlich and Daniil Manaenkov, Research Seminar in Quantitative Economics.
LMISI - Workforce and Labor Market Information Briefing May 21, 2021. Presentation by Scott Powell, Bureau of Labor Market Information and Strategic Initiatives, DTMB.
Estimates of K-12 Pupil Membership and Foundation Allowance May 21, 2021. Prepared by House Fiscal Agency, Senate Fiscal Agency, and State Budget Office.
Estimates for Child Development and Care May 21, 2021. Prepared by House Fiscal Agency, Senate Fiscal Agency, and State Budget Office.
Estimates of Medicaid and Health and Human Services Caseloads and Costs May 21, 2021. Prepared by House Fiscal Agency, Senate Fiscal Agency, and State Budget Office.
House, Senate and Administration Economic Outlooks and Revenue Estimates May 21, 2021. Prepared by House Fiscal Agency, Senate Fiscal Agency, and Department of Treasury.
Economic Outlook and Revenue Estimates for Michigan FY 2020-21 Through FY 2022-23 May 20, 2021. Prepared by Jim Stansell, Senior Economist and Benjamin Gielczyk, Associate Director. This report includes a national and state economic forecast for calendar year (CY) 2020 through CY 2023. It also presents final General Fund/General Purpose (GF/GP) and School Aid Fund (SAF) revenue for fiscal year (FY) 2019-20, and revised revenue estimates for FY 2020-21 through FY 2022-23. Estimates reported herein will be presented to the Consensus Revenue Estimating Conference on May 21, 2021, and will be used to facilitate the consensus estimating process.
Economic and Revenue Outlook FY 2020-21 - FY 2022-23 May 20, 2021. Prepared by the Department of Treasury.
Michigan’s Economic Outlook and Budget Review FY 2020-21 – FY 2022-23 May 19, 2021. Prepared by the Senate Fiscal Agency.

January 2021

Consensus Revenue Agreement, Final Summary January 15, 2021. This memo provides a summation of the agreements reached at the January 2021 conference. These consensus estimates will be reviewed or updated at the May 2021 conference.
Consensus Revenue Agreement, Executive Summary January 15, 2021. Economic and Revenue Forecasts for Fiscal Years 2021, 2022 and 2023.
Consensus Revenue Estimating Conference Agenda January 15, 2021. Broadcast details and agenda. Click here to view on House TV.
RSQE - The U.S. and Michigan Outlook for 2021-2023 January 15, 2021. Prepared by Gabriel Ehrlich and Daniil Manaenkov, RSQE.
IHS Markit - U.S. Economic Outlook January 15, 2021. Prepared by Joel Prakken, Chief U.S. Economist and co-head of U.S. Economics, IHS Markit.
Estimates of K-12 Pupil Membership and Foundation Allowance January 15, 2021. Prepared by House Fiscal Agency, Senate Fiscal Agency, and State Budget Office.
Estimates for Child Development and Care May 21, 2021. Prepared by House Fiscal Agency, Senate Fiscal Agency, and State Budget Office.
House, Senate and Administration Economic Outlooks and Revenue Estimates January 15, 2021. Prepared by House Fiscal Agency, Senate Fiscal Agency, and Department of Treasury.
Economic Outlook and Revenue Estimates for Michigan FY 2020-21 Through FY 2022-23 January 14, 2021. Prepared by Jim Stansell, Senior Economist and Benjamin Gielczyk, Associate Director. This report includes a national and state economic forecast for calendar year (CY) 2020 through CY 2023. It also presents preliminary General Fund/General Purpose (GF/GP) and School Aid Fund (SAF) revenue for fiscal year (FY) 2019-20, revised revenue estimates for FY 2020-21 and FY 2021-22, and initial estimates for FY 2022-23. Estimates reported herein will be presented to the Consensus Revenue Estimating Conference on January 15, 2021 and will be used to facilitate the consensus estimating process.
Michigan’s Economic Outlook and Budget Review FY 2020-21 – FY 2022-23 January 5, 2021. Prepared by the Senate Fiscal Agency.
Economic and Revenue Outlook FY 2020-21 - FY 2022-23 January 14, 2021. Prepared by the Department of Treasury.

August 2020

Consensus Revenue Agreement, Final Summary August 24, 2020. This memo provides a summation of the agreements reached at the August 2020 conference. These consensus estimates will be reviewed or updated at the January 2021 conference.
Consensus Revenue Agreement, Executive Summary August 24, 2020 Economic and Revenue Forecasts for Fiscal Years 2020, 2021 and 2022.
Consensus Revenue Estimating Conference Agenda August 24, 2020. Broadcast details and agenda. Click here to view on House TV. Click here for presentation materials.
The U.S. and Michigan Outlook for 2020-2022 August 24, 2020. Prepared by Daniil Manaenkov and Gabriel Ehrlich, Research Seminar in Quantitative Economics (RSQE), University of Michigan.
DHHS Caseload Consensus August 24, 2020. DHHS Caseload Consensus for FY 2019-20, FY 2020-21 and FY 2021-22 - August 2020 Consensus Expenditure Adjustments to May Consensus. Prepared by House Fiscal Agency, State Budget Office and Senate Fiscal Agency.
Senate, House, and Administration Economic Outlooks and Revenue Estimates August 24, 2020. Prepared by House Fiscal Agency, Department of Treasury, and Senate Fiscal Agency.

May 2020

Consensus Revenue Estimating Conference Agenda [166K] May 15, 2020. Broadcast details and agenda.
Consensus Revenue Agreement, Final Summary [495K] May 15, 2020. This memo provides a summation of the agreements reached at the May 2020 conference. These consensus estimates will be reviewed or updated at the August/September 2020 conference.
Consensus Revenue Agreement, Executive Summary [560K] May 15, 2020 Economic and Revenue Forecasts for Fiscal Years 2020, 2021 and 2022.
The U.S. and Michigan Outlook for 2020-2022 [24,876K], May 15, 2020. Prepared by Daniil Manaenkov and Gabriel Ehrlich, Research Seminar in Quantitative Economics (RSQE), University of Michigan.
U.S. and Michigan Automotive Update [1,365K], May 15, 2020, Prepared by Kristin Dziczek, Vice President of Research, Center for Automotive Research.
Estimates of K-12 Pupil Membership and Foundation Allowance [163K], May 15, 2020. Prepared by House Fiscal Agency, State Budget Office, and Senate Fiscal Agency.
Estimates for Child Development and Care [74K], May 15, 2020. Prepared by House Fiscal Agency, State Budget Office, and Senate Fiscal Agency.
Estimates of Medicaid and Health and Human Services Caseloads and Costs [60K], May 15, 2020. DHHS Caseload Consensus for FY 2019-20 - FY 2021-22. Prepared by House Fiscal Agency, State Budget Office, and Senate Fiscal Agency.
Senate, House, and Administration Economic Outlooks and Revenue Estimates [1,365K], May 15, 2020. Prepared by House Fiscal Agency, Department of Treasury, and Senate Fiscal Agency.
Economic and Revenue Outlook FY 2019-20 - FY 2021-22 [2,258K], May 14, 2020. Prepared by the Department of Treasury.
Michigan’s Economic Outlook and Budget Review FY 2019-20 – FY 2021-22 [1,365K], May 14, 2020. Prepared by the Senate Fiscal Agency.
Economic Outlook and Revenue Estimates for Michigan FY 2019-20 Through FY 2021-22 [694K], May 13, 2020. Prepared by Jim Stansell, Senior Economist and Benjamin Gielczyk, Associate Director. This report includes a national and state economic forecast for calendar year (CY) 2019 through CY 2022. It also presents final General Fund/General Purpose (GF/GP) and School Aid Fund (SAF) revenue for fiscal year (FY) 2018-19, and revised revenue estimates for FY 2019-20 through FY 2021-22. Estimates reported herein will be presented to the Consensus Revenue Estimating Conference on May 15, 2020, and will be used to facilitate the consensus estimating process.

January 2020

Consensus Revenue Agreement, Final Summary [341K], January 10, 2020. This memo provides a summation of the agreements reached at the January 2020 conference. These consensus estimates will be reviewed or updated at the May 2020 conference.
Consensus Revenue Agreement, Executive Summary [92K], January 10, 2020. Economic and Revenue Forecasts for Fiscal Years 2020, 2021 and 2022.
Comparison of Proposed Pupil Membership Estimates FY 2019-20, FY 2020-21, and FY 2021-22 [143K], January 10, 2019. Prepared by House Fiscal Agency, State Budget Office, Senate Fiscal Agency.
US Economic Outlook: Themes, Issues, Risks [903K], January 10, 2020. Prepared by Dr. Joel Prakken, VP, Chief US Economist, Co-Head of US Ecoomics, IHS Markit
Consensus Revenue Estimating Conference Agenda [510K], January 10, 2020. Prepared by House Fiscal Agency
RSQE The U.S. and Michigan Outlook for 2020-2022 [510K], January 10, 2020. Prepared by Jacob Burton, Gabriel Ehrlich, Daniil Manaenkov, Michael McWilliams, Aditi Thapar
Economic Outlook and Revenue Estimates for Michigan FY 2019-20 Through FY 2021-22 [458K], January 8, 2020. Prepared by Jim Stansell, Senior Economist and Benjamin Gielczyk, Associate Director. This report includes a national and state economic forecast for calendar year (CY) 2019 through CY 2022. It also presents preliminary General Fund/General Purpose (GF/GP) and School Aid Fund (SAF) revenue for fiscal year (FY) 2018-19, revised revenue estimates for FY 2019-20 and FY 2020-21, and initial estimates for FY 2021-22. Estimates reported herein will be presented to the Consensus Revenue Estimating Conference on January 10, 2020, and will be used to facilitate the consensus estimating process.

May 2019

Consensus Revenue Agreement, Final Summary [355K], May 17, 2019. This memo provides a summation of the agreements reached at the May 2019 conference. These consensus estimates will be reviewed or updated at the January 2020 conference.
DHHS Caseload Consensus [234K], May 17, 2019. DHHS Caseload Consensus for FY 2018-19, FY 2019-20 and FY 2020-21. Prepared by House Fiscal Agency, State Budget Office and Senate Fiscal Agency
DOC Proposed Projections of Prisoner Population and Number of Available Beds [46K], May 17, 2019. Prepared by the House Fiscal Agency, State Budget Office, and Senate Fiscal Agency.
Consensus Revenue Agreement, Executive Summary [104K], May 17, 2019. Economic and Revenue Forecasts for Fiscal Years 2019, 2020 and 2021.
RSQE 2019-2021 U.S. and Michigan Outlook [335K], May 17, 2019. Prepared by Gabriel M. Ehrlich, Director.
Center for Automotive Research - Michigan Automative Industry Update [2.19MB], May 17, 2019, Prepared by Kristin Dziczek - Vice President, Industry, Labor, & Economics (ILE) Group.
Economic Outlook and Revenue Estimates for Michigan FY 2018-19 Through FY 2020-21 [564K], May 15, 2019. Prepared by Jim Stansell, Senior Economist. This report includes a national and state economic forecast for calendar year (CY) 2018 through CY 2021. It also presents final General Fund/General Purpose (GF/GP) and School Aid Fund (SAF) revenue for fiscal year (FY) 2017-18, and revised revenue estimates for FY 2018-19 through FY 2020-21. Estimates reported herein will be presented to the Consensus Revenue Estimating Conference on May 17, 2019, and will be used to facilitate the consensus estimating process.

January 2019

Consensus Revenue Agreement, Final Summary [346K], January 11, 2019. This memo provides a summation of the agreements reached at the January 2019 conference. These consensus estimates will be reviewed or updated at the May 2019 conference.
Consensus Revenue Agreement, Executive Summary [90K], January 11, 2019. Economic and Revenue Forecasts for Fiscal Years 2019, 2020 and 2021.
RSQE 2019-2021 U.S. and Michigan Outlook [293K], January 10, 2019. Prepared by Gabriel M. Ehrlich, Director.
Comparison of Proposed Pupil Membership Estimates FY 2018-19, FY 2019-20, and FY 2020-21 [130K], January 10, 2019. Prepared by House Fiscal Agency, State Budget Office, Senate Fiscal Agency.
Economic and Revenue Forecasts [26K], January 10, 2019. Prepared by HFA, SFA and Department of Treasury.
Anticipating the Next Recession: A Probabilistic Approach Prepared by Joel Prakken, PhD, CBE, Macroeconomic Advisers by IHS Markit [557K], January 11, 2019.
Economic Outlook and Revenue Estimates for Michigan FY 2018-19 Through FY 2020-21 [278K], January 9, 2019. Prepared by Jim Stansell, Senior Economist. This report includes a national and state economic forecast for calendar year (CY) 2018 through CY 2021. It also presents preliminary General Fund/General Purpose (GF/GP) and School Aid Fund (SAF) revenue for fiscal year (FY) 2017-18, revised revenue estimates for FY 2018-19 and FY 2019-20, and initial estimates for FY 2020-21. Estimates reported herein will be presented to the Consensus Revenue Estimating Conference on January 11, 2019, and will be used to facilitate the consensus estimating process.

May 2018

Consensus Revenue Agreement, Final Summary [153K], May 17, 2018. This memo provides a summation of the agreements reached at the May 2018 conference. These consensus estimates will be reviewed and updated at the January 2019 conference.
Consensus Revenue Agreement, Executive Summary [91K], May 16, 2018. Economic and Revenue Forecasts for Fiscal Years 2018, 2019 and 2020.
RSQE Forecasts - The U.S. and Michigan Economic Outlook for 2018-2020 [1.13MB], May 16, 2018. Prepared by RSQE Forecasts
Center for Automotive Research - Michigan Automative Industry Update [1.13MB], May 16, 2018.
Economic and Revenue Forecasts FY 2018, FY 2019 and FY 2020 [391KB], May 16, 2018. Prepared by House Fiscal Agency, Treasury and Senate Fiscal Agency
Comparison of Proposed Pupil Membership Estimates FY 2017-18, FY 2018-19, and FY 2019-20 [125KB], May 16, 2018. House Fiscal Agency, State Budget and Senate Fiscal Agency
Consensus Expenditure Estimates for FY 2017-18, FY 2018-19 and FY 2019-20, Department of Health and Human Services [81KB], May 16, 2018. House Fiscal Agency, State Budget and Senate Fiscal Agency
Proposed Projections of Prisoner Population and Number of Available Beds Consensus Estimate [102KB], May 16, 2018. House Fiscal Agency, State Budget and Senate Fiscal Agency

January 2018

Consensus Revenue Estimating Conference Overview Presentation [28.5K], January 17, 2018. Consensus Revenue Estimating Conference Overview presentation to the House Appropriations Committee on Wednesday, January 17, 2018. by Mary Ann Cleary, Director.
Consensus Revenue Agreement, Final Summary [149K], January 12, 2018. This memo provides a summation of the agreements reached at the January 2018 conference. These consensus estimates will be reviewed or updated at the May 2018 conference.
Consensus Revenue Agreement, Executive Summary [66K], January 11, 2018. Economic and Revenue Forecasts for Fiscal Years 2018, 2019 and 2020.
The US economic outlook and the expanding role of e-commerce [899KB], January 11, 2018. Prepared by Chris G. Christopher, Jr., CBE, PhD, Executive Director, IHB Markit
Economic and Revenue Forecasts for FY 2018, FY 2019 and FY 2020 Joint Presentation [386KB], January 11, 2018. Prepared by Jim Stansell, House Fiscal Agency, Eric Bussis, Treasury and David Zin, Senate Fiscal Agency.
Comparison of Proposed Pupil Membership Estimates FY 2017-18, FY 2018-19 and FY 2019-20 [111KB], January 11, 2018. Prepared by House Fiscal Agency, State Budget Office, Senate Fiscal Agency.
The U.S. and Michigan Outlook for 2018-2020 [202KB], January 11, 2018. Prepared by RSQE Forecasts.

May 2017

Consensus Revenue Agreement, Final Summary [146K], May 18, 2017. This memo provides a summation of the agreements reached at the May 2017 conference. These consensus estimates will be reviewed or updated at the January 2018 conference.
Consensus Revenue Agreement, Executive Summary [56K], May 17, 2017. Economic and Revenue Forecasts for Fiscal Years 2017, 2018 and 2019.
Presentation: Will the Post-Recession Labor Market Constrain Economic Growth? Prepared by Steve Woodbury [197K], May 17, 2017.
Joint Presentation: Economic and Revenue Forecasts for FY 2017, FY 2018, FY 2019 Prepared by House Fiscal Agency, Senate Fiscal Agency and Treasury, May 17, 2017.
The U.S. and Michigan Outlook for 2017-19 Prepared by RSQE, May 17, 2017.
Comparison of Proposed Pupil Membership Estimates for FY 2016-17, FY 2017-18, and FY 2018-19 Prepared by House Fiscal Agency, State Budget Office and Senate Fiscal Agency.
Consensus Expenditure Estimates for FY 2016-17, FY 2017-18, and FY 2018-19, Department of Health and Human Services Prepared by House Fiscal Agency, State Budget Office and Senate Fiscal Agency.

January 2017

Consensus Revenue Agreement, Final Summary [143K], January 13, 2017. This memo provides a summation of the agreements reached at the January 2017 conference. These consensus estimates will be reviewed or updated at the May 2017 conference.
Consensus Revenue Agreement, Executive Summary [89K], January 12, 2017. Economic and Revenue Forecasts for Fiscal Years 2017, 2018 and 2019.
US Economic Outlook - IHS Markit Summary [89K], January 12, 2017. Chris G. Christopher, Jr., PhD, CBE, Director US Macro & Global Economics.
Senate, House and Administration Economic Outlooks and Revenue Estimates for FY 2017, FY 2018, FY 2019 [474K], January 12, 2017. David Zin, Senate Fiscal Agency, Jim Stansell, House Fiscal Agency and Jay Wortley, Department of Treasury.
The U. S. and Michigan Outlook for 2017-19 [653K], January 12, 2017. Daniil Manaenkov and Gabriel Ehrlich, Research Seminar in Quantitative Economics, University of Michigan.

May 2016

Consensus Revenue Agreement, Final Summary [145K], May 17, 2016. This memo provides a summation of the agreements reached at the May 2016 conference. These consensus estimates will be reviewed or updated at the January 2017 conference.
Consensus Revenue Agreement, Executive Summary [70K], May 17, 2016 . Economic and Revenue Forecasts for Fiscal Years 2016, 2017 and 2018.
DHHS Medicaid Expenditures Summary [35K], May 17, 2016.
Economic Update - Consensus Revenue Estimating Conference [553K], May 17, 2016, Paul Traub, Senior Business Economist, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
The U.S. and Michigan Outlook for 2016-2018 [672K], May 17, 2016. RSQE - University of Michigan. This presentation is on the U.S. and Michigan outlook for 2016-2018.
Comparison of Proposed Pupil Membership Estimates [106K], May 16, 2016. Bethany Wicksall, Associate Director. This presentation is an comparison of propsed pupil membership estimates for FY 2015-16, FY 2016-17, and FY 2017-18.
Economic and Revneue Foreceasts for FY 2016, FY 2017 and FY 2018. [205K], May 16, 2016. Prepared by Department of Treasury, HFA, and SFA This presentation gives information on the Economic and Revenue Forecasts for FY 2016, FY 2017 and FY 2018.
Economic Outlook and Revenue Estimates for Michigan FY 2015-16 Through FY 2017-18 [176K], May 13, 2016. Prepared by Jim Stansell, Senior Economist. This report includes a national and state economic forecast for calendar year (CY) 2015 through CY 2018. It also presents preliminary final General Fund/General Purpose (GF/GP) and School Aid Fund (SAF) revenue for fiscal year (FY) 2014-15, and revised estimates for FY 2015-16 through FY 2017-18. Estimates reported herein will be presented to the Consensus Revenue Estimating Conference on May 17, 2016, and will be used to facilitate the consensus estimating process.

January 2016

Consensus Revenue Estimating Conference Overview [256K], February 3, 2016. Prepared by Mary Ann Cleary, Director. This presentation is an overview of the Consensus Revenue Estimating Conference.
Consensus Revenue Agreement, Final Summary [143K], January 15, 2016. This memo provides a summation of the agreements reached at the January 14, 2016 conference. The consensus estimates will be revised or updated at the May 2016 conference.
Research Seminar in Quantitative Economics (RSQE) The U.S. and Michigan Economic Outlook [546K], January 14, 2016. Prepared by Daniil Manaenkov, Economist and Assistant Research Scientist and Gabriel Ehrlich, Economist and Associate Director.
IHS Economics - The U.S. Economic Outlook [469K], January 14, 2016. Prepared by Patrick Newport, Director of Long Term Forecasting
Joint Presentation - Economic Outlook and Revenue Estimates [457K], January 14, 2016. Prepared by Jim Stansell, House Fiscal Agency, David Zin, Senate Fiscal Agency, and Jay Wortley, Department of Treasury.
Estimates of K-12 Pupil Membership and Foundation Allowance [496K], January 14, 2016. Prepared by Bethany Wicksall, House Fiscal Agency, Kathryn Summers, Senate Fiscal Agency, and Beth Bullion, Office of the State Budget
Economic Outlook and Revenue Estimates for Michigan FY 2015-16 Through FY 2017-18 [164K], January 12, 2016. Prepared by Jim Stansell, Senior Economist. This report includes a national and state economic forecast for calendar year (CY) 2015 through CY 2018. It also presents preliminary final General Fund/General Purpose (GF/GP) and School Aid Fund (SAF) revenue for fiscal year (FY) 2014-15, and revised estimates for FY 2015-16 through FY 2016-17, and initial estimates for FY 2017-18. Estimates reported herein will be presented to the Consensus Revenue Estimating Conference on January 14, 2016, and will be used to facilitate the consensus estimating process.
Consensus Revenue Agreement, Executive Summary [54K], January 14, 2016. Economic and Revenue Forecasts for Fiscal Years 2016, 2017 and 2018.

May 2015

Consensus Revenue Agreement, Final Summary [50K], May 18, 2015. This memo provides a summation of the agreements reached at the May 2015 conference. These consensus estimates will be reviewed or updated at the January 2016 conference.
Michigan Demographic Trends[731K], May 15, 2015. Prepared by Eric Guthrie, State Demographer, Department of Technology, Management and Budget. This document gives information on the demographic trends in Michigan.
The U.S. and Michigan Outlook for 2015-2017 [970K], May 15, 2015. Prepared by George A. Fulton, Director at RSQE Forecasts. This document gives information on the U.S. and Michigan Outlook for 2015-2017.
Economic and Revenue Forecasts - Joint Presentation [227K], May 15, 2015. Prepared by Jim Stansell, Senior Economist, House Fiscal Agency and David Zin, Senior Economist, Senate Fiscal Agency. This document gives information on the Economic and Revenue Forecasts for FY 2015, FY 2016 and FY 2017.
Consensus Revenue Agreement, Executive Summary [47K], May 15, 2015 . Economic and Revenue Forecasts for Fiscal Years 2015, 2016 and 2017.
Economic Outlook and Revenue Estimates for Michigan FY 2014-15 Through FY 2016-17 [174K], May 13, 2015. Prepared by Jim Stansell, Senior Economist. This report includes a national and state economic forecast for calendar year (CY) 2014 through CY 2017. It also presents final General Fund/General Purpose (GF/GP) and School Aid Fund (SAF) revenue for fiscal year FY 2013-14 and revised estimates for FY 2014-15 through FY 2016-17. Estimates reported herein will be presented to the Consensus Revenue Estimating Conference on May 15, 2015, and will be used to facilitate the consensus estimating process.

January 2015

Consensus Revenue Agreement, Final Summary [154K], January 20, 2015. This memo provides a summation of the agreements reached at the January 16, 2015 conference. The consensus estimates will be revised or updated at the May 2015 conference.
Consensus Revenue Agreement, Executive Summary [47K], January 16, 2015. Economic and Revenue Forecasts for fiscal years 2015, 2016 and 2017.

Video Archives

Consensus Revenue Estimating Conference Video, May 17, 2016

Consensus Revenue Estimating Conference Video, January 14, 2016

Consensus Revenue Estimating Conference Video, May 15, 2015

Consensus Revenue Estimating Conference Video, January 16, 2015

Consensus Revenue Estimating Conference Video, May 15, 2014