Revenue and Economic Forecast

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Copies of the reports listed below may be obtained by contacting the office at 517.373.8080 or contacting Kathryn Bateson.

Questions on the following documents should be directed to Benjamin Gielczyk, Associate Director and Senior Economist.

Key Documents and Links

Consensus Revenue Estimating Conference

State Tax Revenue Overview

Budget Poster - FY 2025

Revenue Sharing

Revenue and Economic Forecast Archives

2026

• HFA Monthly Revenue Update – March 2026 April 16, 2026. Prepared by Ben Gielczyk, Associate Director.
• Fiscal Snapshot: Budget Stabilization Fund (BSF) April 2026
• HFA Monthly Revenue Update – February 2026 March 11, 2026. Prepared by Ben Gielczyk, Associate Director.
• HFA Monthly Revenue Update – January 2026 February 17, 2026. Prepared by Ben Gielczyk, Associate Director.
• Consensus Revenue Agreement, Final Summary January 16, 2026. This memo provides a summation of the agreements reached at the January 2026 conference. These consensus estimates will be reviewed or updated at the May 2026 conference.
• Consensus Revenue Agreement, Executive Summary January 16, 2026. Economic and Revenue Forecasts for Fiscal Years 2026, 2027 and 2028.
• Economic Outlook and Revenue Estimates for Michigan FY 2025-26 Through FY 2027-28  January 15, 2026. Prepared by Benjamin Gielczyk, Associate Director. This report includes a national and state economic forecast for calendar year (CY) 2025 through CY 2028. It also presents preliminary General Fund/General Purpose (GF/GP) and School Aid Fund (SAF) revenue for fiscal year (FY) 2024-25, revised revenue estimates for FY 2025-26 and FY 2026-27, and initial estimates for FY 2027-28. Estimates reported herein will be presented to the Consensus Revenue Estimating Conference on January 16, 2026 and will be used to facilitate the consensus estimating process.

2025

• HFA Monthly Revenue Update – October 2025 November 14, 2025. Prepared by Ben Gielczyk, Associate Director.
• Appropriations: Summary and Analysis, FY 2025-26 October 29, 2025. This publication provides a summary and analysis of the FY 2025-26 year to date state budget.
• HFA Monthly Revenue Update – September 2025 October 10, 2025. Prepared by Ben Gielczyk, Associate Director.
• Economic Snapshot: August 2025 Employment Report September 2025
• HFA Monthly Revenue Update – August 2025 September 10, 2025. Prepared by Ben Gielczyk, Associate Director.
• HFA Monthly Revenue Update – July 2025 August 18, 2025. Prepared by Ben Gielczyk, Associate Director.
• HFA Monthly Revenue Update – June 2025 July 16, 2025. Prepared by Ben Gielczyk, Associate Director.
• Economic Snapshot: June 2025 Inflation and Interest Rates June 2025
• HFA Monthly Revenue Update – May 2025 June 13, 2025. Prepared by Ben Gielczyk, Associate Director.
• Consensus Revenue Agreement, Final Summary May 16, 2025. This memo provides a summation of the agreements reached at the May 2025 conference. These consensus estimates will be reviewed or updated at the January 2026 conference.
• Consensus Revenue Agreement, Executive Summary May 16, 2025. Economic and Revenue Forecasts for Fiscal Years 2025, 2026 and 2027.
• Economic Outlook and Revenue Estimates for Michigan FY 2024-25 Through FY 2026-27 May 15, 2025. Prepared by Benjamin Gielczyk, Associate Director. This report includes a national and state economic forecast for calendar year (CY) 2024 through CY 2027. It also presents final General Fund/General Purpose (GF/GP) and School Aid Fund (SAF) revenue for fiscal year (FY) 2023-24 and revised revenue estimates for FY 2024-25 through FY 2026-27. Estimates reported herein will be presented to the Consensus Revenue Estimating Conference on May 16, 2025 and will be used to facilitate the consensus estimating process.
• HFA Monthly Revenue Update – March 2025 April 10, 2025. Prepared by Ben Gielczyk, Associate Director.
• HFA Monthly Revenue Update – February 2025 March 21, 2025. Prepared by Ben Gielczyk, Associate Director.
• HFA Monthly Revenue Update – January 2025 February 18, 2025. Prepared by Ben Gielczyk, Associate Director.
• Consensus Revenue Agreement, Final Summary January 10, 2025. This memo provides a summation of the agreements reached at the January 2025 conference. These consensus estimates will be reviewed or updated at the May 2025 conference.
• Consensus Revenue Agreement, Executive Summary January 10, 2025. Economic and Revenue Forecasts for Fiscal Years 2025, 2026 and 2027.
• Economic Outlook and Revenue Estimates for Michigan FY 2024-25 Through FY 2026-27  January 8, 2025. Prepared by Benjamin Gielczyk, Associate Director. This report includes a national and state economic forecast for calendar year (CY) 2024 through CY 2027. It also presents preliminary General Fund/General Purpose (GF/GP) and School Aid Fund (SAF) revenue for fiscal year (FY) 2023-24, revised revenue estimates for FY 2024-25 and FY 2025-26, and initial estimates for FY 2026-27. Estimates reported herein will be presented to the Consensus Revenue Estimating Conference on January 10, 2025 and will be used to facilitate the consensus estimating process.

2024

• Revenue State Source and Distribution December 23, 2024. Prepared by Ben Gielczyk, Associate Director. This report provides information on the source and distribution of revenue for the State of Michigan, and includes final FY 2022-23 revenue, and estimated FY 2023-24 and FY 2024-25 amounts. Estimates in this report are based on revenue amounts agreed to at the May 2024 Consensus Revenue Estimating Conference. This publication also includes final FY 2022-23 collections by type of tax and provides information for each tax with regard to the tax base, rate, and disposition as well as state revenue dedication information including tax type, dedicated amount, and recipient of dedicated funds.
• HFA Monthly Revenue Update – October 2024 November 15, 2024. Prepared by Ben Gielczyk, Associate Director and Senior Economist.
• HFA Monthly Revenue Update – September 2024 October 9, 2024. Prepared by Ben Gielczyk, Associate Director and Senior Economist.
• Appropriations: Summary and Analysis, FY 2024-25 September 17, 2024. This publication provides a summary and analysis of the FY 2024-25 year to date state budget.
• HFA Monthly Revenue Update – August 2024 September 11, 2024. Prepared by Ben Gielczyk, Associate Director and Senior Economist.
• HFA Monthly Revenue Update – July 2024 August 12, 2024. Prepared by Ben Gielczyk, Associate Director and Senior Economist.
• HFA Monthly Revenue Update – June 2024 July 11, 2024. Prepared by Ben Gielczyk, Associate Director and Senior Economist.
• HFA Monthly Revenue Update – May 2024 June 12, 2024. Prepared by Ben Gielczyk, Associate Director and Senior Economist.
• Consensus Revenue Agreement, Final Summary May 17, 2024. This memo provides a summation of the agreements reached at the May 2024 conference. These consensus estimates will be reviewed or updated at the January 2025 conference.
• Consensus Revenue Agreement, Executive Summary May 17, 2024. Economic and Revenue Forecasts for Fiscal Years 2024, 2025 and 2026.
• Economic Outlook and Revenue Estimates for Michigan FY 2023-24 Through FY 2025-26 May 16, 2024. Prepared by Benjamin Gielczyk, Associate Director. This report includes a national and state economic forecast for calendar year (CY) 2023 through CY 2026. It also presents final General Fund/General Purpose (GF/GP) and School Aid Fund (SAF) revenue for fiscal year (FY) 2022-23 and revised revenue estimates for FY 2023-24 through FY 2025-26. Estimates reported herein will be presented to the Consensus Revenue Estimating Conference on May 17, 2024 and will be used to facilitate the consensus estimating process.
• HFA Monthly Revenue Update – February 2024 March 13, 2024. Prepared by Ben Gielczyk, Associate Director and Senior Economist.
• HFA Monthly Revenue Update – January 2024 February 14, 2024. Prepared by Ben Gielczyk, Associate Director and Jim Stansell, Senior Economist.
• Consensus Revenue Agreement, Final Summary January 12, 2024. This memo provides a summation of the agreements reached at the January 2024 conference. These consensus estimates will be reviewed or updated at the May 2024 conference.
• Consensus Revenue Agreement, Executive Summary January 12, 2024. Economic and Revenue Forecasts for Fiscal Years 2024, 2025 and 2026.
• Economic Outlook and Revenue Estimates for Michigan FY 2023-24 Through FY 2025-26  January 10, 2024. Prepared by Jim Stansell, Senior Economist and Benjamin Gielczyk, Associate Director. This report includes a national and state economic forecast for calendar year (CY) 2023 through CY 2026. It also presents preliminary General Fund/General Purpose (GF/GP) and School Aid Fund (SAF) revenue for fiscal year (FY) 2022-23, revised revenue estimates for FY 2023-24 and FY 2024-25, and initial estimates for FY 2025-26. Estimates reported herein will be presented to the Consensus Revenue Estimating Conference on January 12, 2024 and will be used to facilitate the consensus estimating process.
• Legislative Snapshot: Earned Income Tax Credit January 2024

2023

•  HFA Monthly Revenue Update – October 2023 November 8, 2023. Prepared by Ben Gielczyk, Associate Director and Jim Stansell, Senior Economist.
• HFA Monthly Revenue Update – September 2023 October 11, 2023. Prepared by Ben Gielczyk, Associate Director and Jim Stansell, Senior Economist.
• Appropriations: Summary and Analysis, FY 2023-24 September 13, 2023. This publication provides a summary and analysis of the FY 2023-24 year to date state budget.
• HFA Monthly Revenue Update – August 2023 September 12, 2023. Prepared by Ben Gielczyk, Associate Director and Jim Stansell, Senior Economist.
• Revenue State Source and Distribution September 12, 2023. Prepared by Ben Gielczyk, Associate Director and Jim Stansell, Senior Economist. This report provides information on the source and distribution of revenue for the State of Michigan, and includes final FY 2021-22 revenue, and estimated FY 2022-23 and FY 2023-24 amounts. Estimates in this report are based on revenue amounts agreed to at the May 2023 Consensus Revenue Estimating Conference. This publication also includes final FY 2021-22 collections by type of tax and provides information for each tax with regard to the tax base, rate, and disposition as well as state revenue dedication information including tax type, dedicated amount, and recipient of dedicated funds.
• HFA Monthly Revenue Update – July 2023 August 10, 2023. Prepared by Ben Gielczyk, Associate Director and Jim Stansell, Senior Economist.
• HFA Monthly Revenue Update – June 2023 July 13, 2023. Prepared by Ben Gielczyk, Associate Director and Jim Stansell, Senior Economist.
• HFA Monthly Revenue Update – May 2023 June 9, 2023. Prepared by Jim Stansell, Senior Economist and Ben Gielczyk, Associate Director.
• Economic Outlook and Revenue Estimates for Michigan FY 2022-23 Through FY 2024-25  May 17, 2023. Prepared by Benjamin Gielczyk, Associate Director and Jim Stansell, Senior Economist and Associate Director. This report includes a national and state economic forecast for calendar year (CY) 2022 through CY 2025. It also presents final General Fund/General Purpose (GF/GP) and School Aid Fund (SAF) revenue for fiscal year (FY) 2021-22 and revised revenue estimates for FY 2022-23 through FY 2024-25. Estimates reported herein will be presented to the Consensus Revenue Estimating Conference on May 19, 2023 and will be used to facilitate the consensus estimating process.
• HFA Monthly Revenue Update – March 2023 April 12, 2023. Prepared by Jim Stansell, Senior Economist and Ben Gielczyk, Associate Director.
• HFA Monthly Revenue Update – February 2023 March 9, 2023. Prepared by Jim Stansell, Senior Economist and Ben Gielczyk, Associate Director.
• HFA Monthly Revenue Update – January 2023 February 9, 2023. Prepared by Jim Stansell, Senior Economist and Ben Gielczyk, Associate Director.
• Legislative Snapshot: Headlee Rollbacks and Millage Reduction Fraction January 2023
• Legislative Snapshot: The "Pension Tax" (Three Tiered Treatment of Retirement Income) January 2023
• Legislative Snapshot: Principal Residence Exemption January 2023
• Legislative Snapshot: Tax Increment Financing Authority January 2023
• Consensus Revenue Agreement, Final Summary January 13, 2023. This memo provides a summation of the agreements reached at the January 2023 conference. These consensus estimates will be reviewed or updated at the May 2023 conference.
• Consensus Revenue Agreement, Executive Summary January 13, 2023. Economic and Revenue Forecasts for Fiscal Years 2023, 2024 and 2025.
• Economic Outlook and Revenue Estimates for Michigan FY 2022-23 Through FY 2024-25  January 12, 2023. Prepared by Jim Stansell, Senior Economist and Benjamin Gielczyk, Associate Director. This report includes a national and state economic forecast for calendar year (CY) 2022 through CY 2025. It also presents preliminary General Fund/General Purpose (GF/GP) and School Aid Fund (SAF) revenue for fiscal year (FY) 2021-22, revised revenue estimates for FY 2022-23 and FY 2023-24, and initial estimates for FY 2024-25. Estimates reported herein will be presented to the Consensus Revenue Estimating Conference on January 13, 2023 and will be used to facilitate the consensus estimating process.

Revenue Archives